IDC's bold predictions of the faraway year 2018 caught our eye but the analyst company also put out much shorter term predictions for this year (we're already half way through it). The predictions echo what we've been seeing on the market Android is the unquestioned leader, while on the other end of the spectrum BlackBerry is reaching the end of its tether.
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by Region, Shipments, Market Share (units in millions)
|Operating System||2014 Shipment Volumes*||2014 Market Share|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, May 28, 2014, * Forecast data|
Android is the main driving force behind the explosion of affordable devices "low cost has equaled poor quality in the smartphone space" says IDC, but with phones like the Moto E affordable devices are starting to hit the "good enough" mark.
Android's market share will reach 80.2% by the end of this year, but IDC warns it will peak soon and will decline slightly in the following years. Still, this year its growth is expected to outpace the smartphone market.
The Average Selling Price (ASP) of Android handsets will be well below the general ASP this year an expected $254. IDC forecasts general smartphone ASP to drop 6.3% from $335 last year to $314 this year.
Worldwide Smartphone Average Selling Price (ASP) by Region(figures in $USD)
|Operating System||2014 Smartphone ASP*|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, May 28, 2014. * Forecast data|
ASP is not a term Apple uses often and analysts note that. While the Cupertino company does well in established markets with heavy carrier subsidies, it has a tough time competing in emerging markets where there are no subsidies but people still want sub-$200 handsets.
Still, iPhone sales will grow 20%, roughly matching the market expansion speed. That's why the market share will remain stable - 14.8% this year, compared to 14.7% last year. Like Android, IDC expects iOS to start declining slightly in the coming years.
The big winner of this will be Windows Phone, which is expected to grow 29.5% over the 43.3 million of 2013 to 65.9 million. That's about a third of the 184.1 million iPhones Apple is expected to sell this year.
Meanwhile BlackBerry will likely drop a precipitous 49.6% to just under 10 million units for just 0.8%. IDC expects BlackBerry will still be around in 2018 with under 5 million units but we fear the legendary smartphone maker is near the minimum viable level of shipments per year.
You can also peek into the crystal ball and find out what IDC thinks the smartphone market will be in 2018, check out its long-term predictions. Spoiler: it's more of the same.
Oh mr.troll, wp8 get 3.5% market share with only 3oems. And lagdroid get 80% marketshare with 500+oems. Just wait, now wp8.1 has 20+oems.
Good comment, wonder if IDC estimation takes this into account in their forecast...
So MS get 3,5 % after ~ 4 years buaha. Its shame for so big company, its shame because they need buy/destroy Nokia for that and so much money for advertising. WP is fale like Windows RT, Microsoft give us patches and they call it "update", ...